The Nigerian Midstream and Downstream Petroleum Regulatory Authority (NMDPRA) reported that Dangote Petroleum Refinery’s daily exports of petrol, diesel, and aviation fuel hit a peak of 54.63 million litres in September 2026.
The refinery’s combined exports increased by 14.85 million litres per day from 39.78 million litres per day in August 2026, indicating a month-on-month increase of 37.33 percent.
The Dangote refinery’s daily petrol output of 47.22 million litres exceeds Nigeria’s average daily consumption of 44.4 million litres, suggesting potential self-sufficiency.
However, factors like operational choices, pricing disputes, and crude allocation issues limit local supply, keeping domestic stock levels below regulatory goals.
Refinery Output and Exports
Domestic receipts at the refinery dropped by 22.08 percent in September to 39.98 million litres per day, down from 51.31 million litres in August, according to NMDPRA data.
This decline led to exports surpassing domestic receipts by 14.65 million litres daily in September, a reversal from August when domestic receipts exceeded exports by 11.53 million litres.
The refinery’s output is categorised into domestic receipts, exports, and changes in refinery stock, with domestic receipts and exports together making up the refinery’s evacuation.
Details of the refinery‘s combined production indicate that premium motor spirit (PMS), automotive gas oil (AGO), and aviation fuel rose by 15.68% to 97.67 million litres per day in September from 84.43 million litres per day in August.
Capacity Utilization and Production
The refinery’s capacity utilization rose slightly to 105.98 percent of its 700,000 barrels-per-day capacity in September, compared to 105.21 percent in August.
This clearly dwarfs Nigeria’s national average industrial capacity utilisation, which stands at 56.53 percent.
DPRP’s exports accounted for about 57.74% of the refinery’s combined evacuation of the three products in September 2026, compared with about 43.67% in August.
The high utilization rate of 105.98 percent was partly due to crude inventory, with September’s feedstock at 689,000 barrels per day, exceeding the 618,000 barrels received.
Product-Specific Production and Exports
PMS production rose by 12.59% to 47.22 million litres per day from 41.94 million litres per day, with exports rising sharply by 58.99% to 15.47 million litres per day from 9.73 million litres per day.
Domestic receipts declined by 20.55% to 28.50 million litres per day from 35.87 million litres per day.
Diesel production rose by 35.04% to 24.32 million litres per day from 18.01 million litres per day, with exports increasing by 81.83% to 15.91 million litres per day from 8.75 million litres per day.
Aviation fuel production rose by 6.74% to 26.13 million litres per day from 24.48 million litres per day, with exports accelerating by 9.15% to 23.25 million litres per day from 21.30 million litres per day.
Meanwhile, jet fuel exports dictated the crossover, accounting for 87.44% of the refinery’s evacuation of the product in September.
Implications and Disconnections
Exporting surplus refined products brings significant hard currency into Nigeria, boosting its trade balance and generating revenue for the refinery and the broader economy.
Despite the refinery ramping up production and turning the country into a net exporter, local consumers have continued to face high pump prices and lower direct domestic allocations of certain products like diesel and petrol.
This happens because a substantial share of production is channeled to more lucrative or commercially viable export markets rather than solely saturating the local retail grid.
